A recent study by researchers at the Singapore Univerity of Technology and Design has reviewed that the COVID-19 crisis in Spain will end by September 9 and the country must have reported 99% of victims by May 22nd.
Their analysis made use of predictive modelling and – by using data unto May 2nd, determined that the country must have registered 97% her COVID-19 victims by May 7.
The study applied the SIR (susceptible-infected recovered) design, which utilises nations’ everyday data to anticipate how the pandemic will function.
The worldwide prediction holds that by June 21, 99% of COVID-19 cases must have been registered and by December 14 this year, the pandemic will come to an end.
Countries like China, South Korea and Australia were equally analysed even though these nations have ‘theoretically’ bounce from the pandemic.
While Germany is predicted to have seen an end to COVID-19 by August 4th, France is predicted for August 8, the United Kingdom-September 8, Italy- September 10, Mexico-September 19, United States of America-October 1, and Brazil October 21.
The researchers stated that an S-curve graph will be obtained from plotting a graph of cumulative coronavirus cases over time, that is, a steeper rise in the middle of the plot is shown before the line levels out at the peak.
The scientists also described that a bell- curve (lopsided with a ‘longtail’ on the right side) will emerge from a depiction of a normal probability distribution of the COVID-1 pandemic.
The main reason is that, after the explosion of cases, there was a subsequently slow decrease in several countries, Spain inclusive.
Notwithstanding, researchers emphasized that their analysis must be used ‘with care’.
“Considering the unpredictability and flexibility, one can exploit the predicted life cycle curve, particularly its rightmost tail segment, to investigate and identify when and to what degree the pandemic progressively disappears.” said a spokesperson for the group.
In essence, the researchers are utilising the most current data to plot the expectation of a somewhat fluid and elastic set of conditions.
“Too much optimism based on some proposed end dates is risky because it can slacken our discipline and controls.”